How the Wrath of God Descends: Spatiotemporal Mapping of the Plague Prophecy
January 9, 2023
by Tahir Nasser
Introduction
Mirza Ghulam Ahmad claimed to be the Messiah and Imam Mahdi (lit. ‘Guided Leader’) awaited by various world religions. He claimed that he had appeared in Islam to call mankind towards its pure, original message of peace, and that in Islam, all past religions found perfection of their own teachings. Prior to 1891, when his claims were made, he was lauded as among the greatest Islamic scholars and saints of all time. After he made his claims, he was regarded as a liar and treated as such by the Muslim ulema as a whole. Nevertheless, a small community began to develop around him.
His claims received enormous support when, in 1894, eclipses of the sun and moon occurred on the days prophesied by the Prophet Muhammad, peace be on him, that he said would occur at the time of the coming of the Imam Mahdi. The moon was eclipsed on the 13th night of Ramadan, and the sun was eclipsed on the 28th day of the same Ramadan. These eclipses were repeated in the Western hemisphere in the following year of 1895. While Muslim religious leaders had called for Ahmad (pbuh) to produce these signs in his support, prior to 1894, after they occurred, they were dumbfounded. How could Ahmad have fraudulently manipulated the movement of the heavenly bodies, to support his religious claims? In reply, they stepped up their opposition against Ahmad (pbuh). Most of this opposition occurred in the Punjab, where Ahmad (pbuh) lived in a small village called Qadian.
The third bubonic plague of human history occurred in the mid 19th century, originating in China, and spreading around the world for the next 100 years. Of all the countries most affected, India was devastated like none other. The mortality rate in India was greater than that of all other countries around the world combined. It arrived in India in 1896 via Bombay and continued to be present for several decades.
In February 1898, two years after the plague had entered India, Ahmad began making a series of prophecies that came to be known collectively as the ‘prophecy of the plague’. The plague, he claimed, had been sent by God to especially punish those who had rejected his claims and who had behaved insolently to the sign of the eclipses, which constituted such awe-striking testimony from God, that opposition to him and his community after witnessing those signs, would be dealt with by deadly divine retribution. He stated:
Dafi ‘ul-Balai, Ruhani Khazain Vol. 18, p. 229
“Firstly, the plague was not raised in the earth solely because of the rejection of the Messiah of God, but also on account of the multiple sufferings inflicted on him; the intrigues of those who conspired to kill him; and his being branded a disbeliever and a Dajjal [antichrist]… In truth, the non-acceptance of a messenger is not the reason a calamity befalls a people. If a messenger of God is rejected with propriety and good conduct and is not made to endure the hardships of injury and abuse, the judgement of his deniers awaits them [not in this world but] in the hereafter.”
Thus, he claimed, the purpose of the plague was to support his religious claims, in the face of hostile rejection. He understood this prophecy in the context of the following verses of the Holy Quran:
Verily, thy Lord will decide between them by His judgment, and He is the Mighty, the All-knowing. So put thy trust in Allah; surely, thou standest on manifest truth. Verily, thou canst not make the dead to hear, nor canst thou make the deaf to hear the call, when they turn back retreating. And thou canst not guide the blind out of their error. Thou canst make only those to hear who believe in Our Signs, for they submit. And when the sentence is passed against them, We shall bring forth for them a germ out of the earth, which shall wound them because people did not believe in Our Signs.
Quran 27:79 – 83
Thus, the signs that people had rejected, the eclipses of the sun and the moon, were the proximate cause of the “sentence…passed against them”. By rejecting these extraordinary signs, the people of India in general and the Punjab in particular, had incurred divine displeasure, and God would bring forth an “insect of the earth” to cause them harm. This was the understanding of the Promised Messiah (pbuh) at the time of the outbreak of the plague, in 1902. Explaining a dream in which he had seen the plague in the form of a beast comprised of the body parts of multiple animals, he wrote:
Then it was conveyed to me that this animal was the plague and was the [germ out of the earth], mentioned in the Holy Qur’an, which would be sent in the latter days and it would bite people because they did not believe in God’s Signs …. The germ of the earth, mentioned in these verses, was destined to appear in the time of the Promised Messiah. It was further conveyed to me that this animal combining the features of many animals, which I had seen in my dream, was the germ of the plague. God had named it [germ of the earth] as this malady originates with the germs of the earth and is propagated by them and it first affects rats and then spreads.
Tadhkirah, p. 585-5; Nuzulul-Masih, pp. 37–39, Ruhani Khaza’in, vol. 18, pp. 415–417
There were three major parts to the prophecy of Ahmad (pbuh):
- That the plague would particularly spread to the Punjab, where the majority of his opponents lived, notwithstanding the fact that he himself, and the centre of his community was based there.
- That despite the Punjab being hard hit by the plague, Qadian, the town in which he lived, would not be destroyed by the plague. Part of this prophecy was that those who resided in the “four walls” of his house would be entirely unaffected by the plague. He explained that this related not only to the four walls of his physical home, but also those in the four walls of his spiritual home. Those within the four walls of his spiritual home were those who were part of his community and lived up to the teachings of Islam in the eyes of God.
- That as a result of the protection given to Ahmad (as) and his followers, his community would grow significantly. He claimed that it would be so manifest that it would constitute a sign of his truth.
Certain critics (here and here) of Ahmad (pbuh) argue against certain aspects of the prophecy. Let us take their objections, one by one.
Part 1: Devastation in the Punjab
The bubonic plague is a bacterial infection caused by the bacterium Yersinia pestis. It is transmitted to humans through the bites of infected fleas, which are often carried by rats. In the 19th century, the third plague pandemic occurred, which was among the deadliest in world history. It originated in China in the western Yunnan province in the mid-1850s, but did not spread abroad significantly for many decades. In 1894, the year in which the prophecy of the eclipses were first fulfilled, the plague spread to Hong Kong and Canton in 1894, resulting in deaths up to 80,000 per week. Western officials sought to intervene to prevent this turning into a worldwide pandemic but their efforts were unsuccessful. India was to be overwhelmingly the hardest hit, suffering approximately 10 million deaths, out of a total of 15 million worldwide,.
The first outbreak in India occurred in 1896 in Bombay, a major port city with links to China. The plague spread from person to person through contact with infected animals or through close contact with an infected person. Symptoms of the disease included fever, chills, headache, muscle aches, and swollen lymph nodes, which are called “buboes.” If left untreated, the disease could be deadly. In response to the outbreak, the British colonial government implemented various public health measures to try to control the spread of the disease. These measures included quarantine, disinfection of homes and public spaces, and the extermination of rats and other animals that were believed to be carriers of the disease. The government also established hospitals and clinics to treat infected individuals and provided education about how to prevent the spread of the disease.
The Prophecy
On February 6th 1898, Hazrat Mirza Ghulam Ahmad (pbuh) made the following announcement:
“Today, Sunday, February 6, 1898, I saw in a dream that God’s angels were planting black trees in different parts of the Punjab. Those trees were very ugly, black in colour, terrifying and of small size. I asked some of those who were planting them: ‘What kind of trees are these?’ They answered: ‘These are trees of the plague which is about to spread in the country.’ It remained unclear to me whether it was said that the plague would spread during the coming winter or the winter after, but it was a terrible sign which I saw.”
Announcement of Plague, February 6, 1898, Majmu‘a-e-Ishtiharat, vol. 3, p. 5;
Ayyamus-Sulah, p. 121; Ruhani Khaza’in, vol. 4, p. 361; Tadhkirah Feb 6 1898, p. 410, 3rd Edition (2019)
In this statement therefore, Ahmad (pbuh) in February 1898, prophesied the spread of the disease to the Punjab. Was this prophecy fulfilled, and if so, how can we know for certain?
Was the Prophecy Fulfilled?
The first logical fallacy used by critics of this prophecy is known as “Strawman”.
Strawman – Misrepresenting someone’s argument to make it easier to attack.
Fallacy #1
The critics engage in a Strawman fallacy by entirely omitting any mention of this first part of the prophecy – the objective aspect – relating to the spread of the plague to the Punjab and the devastation wrought there in particular, out of all the places in the world. Knowing how beautifully the prophecy of the spread of the plague to the Punjab was fulfilled, they pretend like this first and major aspect of the prophecy never even existed! Let us see why.
Research published in 2006 (Yu HL, Christakos G. Spatiotemporal modelling and mapping of the bubonic plague epidemic in India. International journal of health geographics. 2006 Dec;5(1):1-5) spatiotemporally mapped the spread of the plague in India by year. By utilising monthly mortality rates for the period September 1896-October 1906, authors Hwa-Lung Yu & George Christakos were able to generate a complete set of 122 mortality maps in space-time for the entire country of India. This research provides us an extraordinary resource to test the prophecy of the Promised Messiah (pbuh).
As can be seen from Figure 1, though the plague arrived in India in 1896, it had not yet reached epidemic proportions across India by 1898, when the above prophecy was made. Indeed, it was still relatively confined to the south west of the country, with the Punjab being untouched for several years. Interestingly, just as Ahmad (pbuh) stated in the above quote that the “seeds” of the plague were to begin sprouting in the winter of 1898 or 1899, we see that the plague indeed began to take root in January 1899 and persisted in the winter of 1900.
Since Figure 1 is a cumulative mortality map, we cannot see the year by year changes in mortality on it, since the black areas represent cumulative mortality over time. The Punjab province and relative location of Qadian within it, is highlighted with a red dot in Figure 1. In the words of the authors: “The maps allow displaying and studying in detail the geographical distribution, temporal evolution and seasonal effects of the deadly epidemic”. For the year to year changes, we therefore refer the reader to Figure 2, which provides a space-time mortality map for the years 1902 and 1903. This shows how mortality figures changed over this time period, across India (excluding a part of Burma). We refer the reader to the Methods section of the original paper to understand better the methodologies involved in generating spatiotemporal random fields (S/TRF) as the basis for these maps.
Figure 2 (below) demonstrates how devastatingly accurate the prophecy of Ahmad (pbuh) was. The Punjab province and relative position of Qadian lies directly in the epicentre of the plague for April 1902 and again in April 1903 (green dot). As can be seen from the cumulative maps in Figure 1, there was nothing obvious or inevitable about the plague finding its epicentre in the Punjab. The Punjab in February 1898 was almost entirely unaffected. Indeed, it wasn’t until the seeds that took root in the winter of 1898 and 1899 sprouted in the Winter of 1901 and the Spring of 1902, that the devastation took hold.
It is easy to claim with hindsight that spread to the Punjab was inevitable, but this is due to retrospective bias. There is no reason why the Punjab, of all the regions, should have become the focal epicentre, such that Ahmad (pbuh) could have reasonably known in advance. If it was simply a case of proximity to Bombay, from where the plague arrived from China, then why was Rajputana, which lay between Bombay and Punjab, relatively unaffected, until in fact, plague had already spread throughout the entire country?
It is clear therefore from the above research that the prophecy of the Promised Messiah (pbuh), made in February 1898, was remarkably fulfilled.
Part 2: Qadian & Four Walls of Protection? A Sign for Believers in God
The Prophecy
In 1902, Ahmad (pbuh) received the following revelation:
“Allah would not chastise the residents of Qadian while you are among them. He has given shelter to this town from the plague to invade and destroy. Were it not for favouring and honouring you, this town would have been destroyed. I am the Gracious One who removes affliction. My Messengers have no fear or grief in My presence. I am keeping watch.”
Dafi‘ul-Bala’, pp. 5–8, Ruhani Khaza’in, vol. 18, pp. 226–228; Tadhkirah p. 571; year 1902
Other revelations in relation to this were:
I shall safeguard all those who dwell within the four walls of your house from plague.
Al-Hakam, vol. 6, no. 16, April 30, 1902, p. 7; Tadhkirah p. 576; Revelation of April 28, 1902
I shall safeguard from plague all those who dwell in the four walls of your house. We shall make this a Sign of mercy for people. This has been decreed from the beginning. I have many remedies.
al-Badr, vol. 1, no. 1, October 31, 1902 p. 5 and al-Hakam, vol. 6, no. 39, October 31, 1902, p. 10; Tadhkirah p. 895; Revelation of Oct 18, 1902
The Interpretation
In explanation of these revelations, Ahmad (pbuh) stated the following:
“In recent days God has revealed to me – ‘I will save all those who dwell in the four walls of your home, except for them who behave with arrogance and presume for themselves a high station. And I will save you with distinction. Peace be on you from God, the Merciful.’
Nuzul-ul-Masih, Ruhani Khaza’in, Vol. 18, pp. 401-402
It ought to be known, that the decree regarding Qadian has two aspects; firstly, His decree which relates to the town in general; that [Qadian] will be saved from such plague as brings chaos and destruction and consumes entire dwellings, secondly, His decree which relates to my home in particular; that all those who reside within it will be saved from the ravages that might inflict certain inhabitants of Qadian.”
It is clear from the above that though Qadian would be affected by the plague, it would not suffer severely as other towns or villages may have done in the Punjab. In addition, the very home of Ahmad (pbuh), both physical and spiritual, would be protected from what some in Qadian would face. Exceptions would be made for those who “behave with arrogance and presume for themselves a high station”.
As regards the condition to be included within the “four walls” of his home, Ahmad (pbuh) wrote the following:
…God in this age desires to show a heavenly sign of His mercy to mankind. Addressing me, He said: ‘You and those who dwell within the four walls of your house; those who unconditionally follow you and are obedient to you, and who on account of true righteousness have become devoted to you, shall all be safeguarded against the plague. This will be a sign of God in the Latter Days so that He might demonstrate a distinction between people. But those who do not follow you completely are not of you. Be not anxious on their account.’
This is a divine directive, on account of which I, myself and all those who dwell within the four walls of my house have no need to be inoculated. For as I have mentioned, God—who is the Lord of heaven and earth, and beyond whose knowledge and power there is nothing—revealed to me long ago that He would save everyone who lives inside the four walls of this house from death by the plague, provided he gives up all antagonism and enters into the allegiance of Bai’at in all sincerity, submission and humility. He must not be arrogant, wilful, proud, heedless or vain towards God’s commands and His Appointed One, and his conduct ought to be in conformity with my teachings. He has also told me that Qadian will be saved from such ravages of the plague that cause people to die like dogs and become mad with grief and confusion, and that generally the members of this community, however large in number, will be safe against the plague as compared to my opponents. However, such of my followers may fall prey to the plague who do not fully abide by their pledge, or concerning whom there is some hidden reason in the knowledge of God.”
Noah’s Ark, 5 Oct 1902, p. 2 – 3
Significance of the Claim for Believers in God
We should pause to consider for a moment the extraordinary nature of this claim. We have seen above the statistics of how fiercely the plague fell upon the Punjab. As detailed in “Epidemics in Colonial Punjab”, Tandon elaborates on the toll of the plague on the Punjab:
“From 1897 to 1918, the plague erupted with varied intensity in twenty-six districts, and had a mortality rate which was approximately four times the all India average. In mortality and dreadfulness, the plague surpassed all other epidemics in the Punjab.”
Tandon S. Epidemics in Colonial Punjab. Journal of Punjab Studies. 2013 Mar 1;20; p. 218
Tandon goes on to give the Punjab death rate in the countryside at 6.3 per 1,000 – an enormous number. To put it in perspective, according to the John Hopkins Research centre, the mortality rate in the US from COVID-19 was 3.3 per 1,000. We should therefore appreciate the nature of the claim made by Ahmad (pbuh). Not only did he claim that the Punjab – the province where he and his community were based – would be hardest hit by a deadly epidemic, but he also claimed that his town would not be wiped out by the plague, though it would be affected, and that he and his home would be unaffected. Qadian was situated in the heartland of the Punjab in British India (see Figure 3). To make such a claim would be an act of sheer lunacy for an individual if they were falsely claiming revelation. To make the claim in itself, is an extraordinary sign.
For those who believe in God but deny the truth of Ahmad (pbuh), it is a strange conundrum they face. According to them, there was a man who spent day and night concocting false revelations. He then predicts that he and his household would be specially protected by God, and that his town would be less affected, by a deadly plague. His prophecy is fulfilled and he lives through a deadly epidemic in the worst hit place in the world, for several years. And yet God was unable to kill him. God was causing the deaths of tens of thousands of people per week, but was unable to kill the one man who was calling down God’s wrath upon himself daily through the concoction of false revelations, in a way, daring God to take action against him by claiming complete immunity. This is despite the clear prophecy of the Quran that God Himself would sever the life-artery of even his most beloved servant – the Prophet Muhammad (pbuh) – if he had concocted even a trivial statement falsely (Quran 69:45 – 48)
When we consider the nature of the household of Ahmad (pbuh), our awe turns to amazement. His was not a small house made of a few rooms, containing a few individuals who kept to themselves. Ahmad (pbuh) ran a very large estate, with hundreds of people visiting and staying with him on a monthly basis. On a daily basis, people were visiting from outside Qadian and coming to stay in his home to benefit from his spiritual company. In fact, meeting, hosting and taking care of guests was listed by Ahmad (pbuh) as one of the primary functions of his appointment by God. Thus, he wrote that people visiting him constituted the third of five branches of his scheme for the propagation of Islam:
The third branch of this scheme is the system of visitors and seekers after truth and other visitors with diverse motives, who come to visit me upon hearing of this Divine scheme…
Fat-he-Islam, Ruhani Khaza’in, vol. 3, pp. 7-25; Essence of Islam, Vol 4; p. 117
He emphasised this to such a degree, that he admonished his followers that they should visit him on a yearly basis, but that it would be preferable for them to move to Qadian and stay with him permanently.
Was the Prophecy Fulfilled?
The logical fallacy the critics employ in relation to this aspect of the prophecy is known as “Texas Sharpshooter”.
Texas Sharpshooter – Cherry-picking data clusters to suit an argument, or finding a pattern to fit a presumption.
Fallacy #2
In other words, they cherry pick statements of Ahmad (pbuh) to build to a false conclusion. By selecting passages from Ahmad’s (pbuh) statements over several years, and stringing them together with a preconceived narrative, they seek to portray the prophecy as unfulfilled, and as a cause for rejection of Ahmad (pbuh).
The objections of their that fall into this logical fallacy category, can be divided into three groups:
Firstly, those that are used to attack the part of the prophecy relating to the fact that Qadian would not be utterly devastated.
Secondly, those that are used to attack that part of the prophecy related to the protection from the plague the physical home of Ahmad (pbuh) would provide.
Thirdly, those that are used to claim that Ahmadi Muslims still did die of the plague and that therefore, following Ahmad (pbuh) was no protection against death from the plague.
The critics have sought to throw doubt on these parts of the prophecy in particular, by seeking to develop a narrative that Ahmad was hastily “explaining away” large numbers of deaths of his followers. They do this not by citing any numbers of those individuals who had died, nor by providing lists of their names. Rather, they seek to develop this narrative through extracted, de-contextualised quotes from Ahmad, spread over several years, while weaving their own narrative between the quotes, so as to bend those statements to fit their preconceived conclusions, and thereby provide fuel for the rejection of the prophecy itself, and on that basis, rejection of Ahmad’s prophetic claims.
Let us review their attempts.
Objections related to Qadian
The objections are presented below relating to the prophecy regarding Qadian:
‘In 1902, Mirza Ghulam Ahmad stated that, “if there is one pious person in the house, then God will save his whole house. Moreover, if he is truly pious, then he can also be the saviour of his neighbourhood” (Malfuzat V4, 25 Nov. 1902, p. 232) but then he later reported in 1904 that…his own neighbour and other people in his neighbourhood died of the plague such that “screams were coming from all over our neighbourhood” (Malfuzat V7, 09 May 1904, p. 17)
Critique #1
In 1902, Mirza Ghulam Ahmad announced, “Almighty God will guard Qadian against the scourge of plague so that people should recognise that this was so because the Messenger and Apostle of God lives in Qadian.” (Defence Against the Plague & A Criterion for the Elect of God, p. 12, published: April 1902) but then he later conveyed in a letter in 1905 that: “The plague has spread rapidly in Qadian. Today, the editor of Al-Badr, Mian Muhammad Afzal’s son is fighting for his life. It is pneumonic plague. It appears as if he is on his last breaths. There is misery everywhere.” (Maktubat Ahmad, V2, Letter no. 76, p. 286, Early 1905).’ “Plague is intense in this area. Yesterday, eight people died.” Dated: 16 April 1904 Maktubat Ahmad, Volume 2, Letter no. 60, pg. 268
Critique #2
It would appear on a cursory glance of these quotes, taken out of context, that they may pose a problem for the believer in Ahmad’s (pbuh) truth. It would appear, on cursory examination, that these quotes are self-contradictory. But this impression is removed when we realise that this misconception is based on a misrepresentation. The misrepresentation is exposed when we review what the original words of the prophecy were:
“It ought to be known, that the decree regarding Qadian has two aspects; firstly, His decree which relates to the town in general; that [Qadian] will be saved from such plague as brings chaos and destruction and consumes entire dwellings, secondly, His decree which relates to my home in particular; that all those who reside within it will be saved from the ravages that might inflict certain inhabitants of Qadian.”
Nuzul-ul-Masih, Ruhani Khaza’in, Vol. 18, pp. 401-402
Ahmad (pbuh) explains in his book “Defence Against the Plague & Criterion for the Elect of God” the following, written in April 1902, before the above quotes which the critic has relied upon:
“Awa is an Arabic word that means ‘safeguarding from destruction and disorder’, and ‘taking into one’s protection’. This is a sign pointing to the fact that among the types of plague the most dreadful type is the one called ta‘un-e-jarif—meaning, ‘the sweeper’—from which people flee from place to place and die like dogs. The situation is beyond the limits of human tolerance. Thus, this divine revelation contains the promise that this condition will never affect Qadian. This revelation’s interpretation is provided by another revelation:…Meaning that, had I not held this Movement in high regard, then I would have destroyed Qadian as well. Two points are gleaned from this revelation: (1) First, it would not matter if Qadian were to experience an incident, on rare occasions— which is within the bounds of human tolerance, does not wreak havoc, and does not induce a panic-driven exodus—because such an extremely rare occurrence amounts to nothing. (2) Second, it is necessary that a devastating plague must break out in those cities and villages which, in comparison with Qadian, house the extremely rebellious, wicked, oppressive, corrupt, immoral, and the dangerous opponents of this Movement, to such a degree that people will lose their senses, and run in every direction. In accordance with its vastness, I have defined the word awa in this manner. I claim with conviction that ta‘un-e-jarif, which empties and swallows villages entirely, shall never break out in Qadian. In contrast, however, in other cities and villages, where the oppressive and corrupt are, dreadful scenes are sure to manifest. In the entire world, it is Qadian alone for which this promise was made.
Defence Against the Plague & Criterion for the Elect of God, Footnote p.11 – 12; Hazrat Mirza Ghulam Ahmad (pbuh)
In this respect, the statement by Ahmad (pbuh) that “if there is one pious person in the house, then God will save his whole house. Moreover, if he is truly pious, then he can also be the saviour of his neighbourhood” (Malfuzat V4, 25 Nov. 1902, p. 232) does not contradict the fact that there were screams heard from his neighbourhood. For the prophecy does not state that Qadian would not be affected. It states that Qadian would not be wholesale swallowed by the plague such that people would migrate from it. It is an undeniable fact that Qadian was not swallowed by the plague and never became emptied due to mass migration out of it.
Again, the same applies to the statement of Ahmad (pbuh) that the plague has “spread rapidly in Qadian”, and the statement that “there is misery everywhere”. This is normal human emotion at a time of danger. It is quite obvious that the spread of the plague in Qadian does not fulfil the criteria set out in the prophecy that the plague should not “wreak havoc…(and) induce a panic-driven exodus”. As such, these objections are frankly meaningless. They set up a false picture of the prophecy through isolated quotes and then seek to undermine the prophecy against the misrepresentation that has been established.
Objections Related to the Physical Home of Ahmad (pbuh)
The following de-contextualised quotes are used to level objections against the prophecy as it related to the protection afforded by the home of Ahmad (pbuh):
‘In 1902, Mirza Ghulam Ahmad claimed that God had promised to “safeguard all those who dwell within four walls of his home” (Noah’s Ark, p. 139, published: 5 Oct. 1902). Then later in 1904: “Mirza Ghulam Ahmad expelled those from his home who had become infected or were thought to have been infected with the plague. Mirza Ghulam Ahmad relayed, “Elder Ghausaan caught a fever. She has been expelled from the home. In my opinion, however, she doesn’t have plague. She has been ousted as a precaution. Master Muhammad Din caught fever and also developed Lymph node swelling. He has also been expelled (from the home). Hence, some intensity of the plague is beginning in our area as well, but it is less than before.” (Maktubat Ahmad, V2, Letter no. 59, p. 267, 04 April 1904)
Critique #3
In this instance, the misdirection is quite pitiful. On the one hand they claim that Qadian was ravaged by the plague, but on the other hand, they cannot point to a single person’s death that occurred in a home occupied by at least seventy five individuals (see Figure 4). It is quite obvious that if plague was to enter a home of seventy five individuals, in a town that was being totally ravaged by the disease, expulsion of a few individuals would not have saved the inhabitants over a period of several years, in a country that lacked basic sanitation facilities.
Further, the implication that Ahmad (pbuh) was expelling his own followers who contracted the plague in his home is belied by the statement of Maulvi Muhammadi Ali in the May 1907 edition of Review of Religions, on p. 184 (see Figure 4). Maulvi Muhammad Ali relates that during the worst attack of the plague on Qadian in 1904, he fell ill with a fever which assumed a “fearful aspect”. Did Ahmad (pbuh) throw him out the house? Did Ahmad (pbuh) stay away from him in fear? On the contrary. Ahmad (pbuh) went up to him and even took his pulse and tended to him, fearlessly. Is this the behaviour of a liar, or a man assured and confident in God’s protection?
The next critique presented on this topic is the following:
In 1902, Mirza Ghulam Ahmad asked for donations to expand his home in Qadian to give shelter to his followers. Announcement: “A Request for Donations For an Extension of ‘the House’ …Allah Exalted be His Glory has promised to especially safeguard all those who dwell within its four walls…Since there is a danger that the time of this plague is near and in accordance with the glad-tiding of divine revelation this home will serve as an ark in the storm of this plague, no one knows how many persons might benefit from the promise of this glad-tiding, therefore, this work is of immediate nature…” (Noah’s Ark, p. 139, published: 5 Oct. 1902) but then later in 1905: Mirza Ghulam Ahmad asked his followers not to enter Qadian because of the active plague. Mirza Sahib relates, “The plague has spread rapidly in Qadian…There is misery everywhere. May God bless you. In this situation, in my opinion it is very appropriate that you do not visit until the end of April 1905.” (Maktubat Ahmad, V2, Letter no. 76, p. 286, Early 1905)
Critique #4
It is difficult to know how to respond to an allegation lacking in intelligence to this degree. The first quote states that his home would be an ark amid the “storm of this plague” and the second quote states that since plague has spread rapidly in Qadian “it is very appropriate that you do not visit until the end of April 1905”. These two statements are not at all in contradiction. Where does it state in the second quote that the individual in question would stay in the home of Ahmad (pbuh)? Could it be that he had his own home in the town? Could it be possible that even if he was coming to stay in the home of Ahmad (pbuh), that he might contract plague on his way in, as he passed through the surrounding villages?
The Islamic teaching is to avoid entering a town wherein is an epidemic, and not to leave a town in which an epidemic has broken out, which you find yourself in. Nothing in the prophecies of Ahmad (pbuh) change these basic teachings. As such, Ahmad (pbuh) was merely providing sound advice to one of his followers, based on the Islamic injunctions. To make an allegation against this shows a serious lack of discernment and judgement.
Objections Related to Spiritual Home of Ahmad (pbuh)
In this set of objections, the authors have failed to read the original prophecy at all, it would seem. Their objections are as follows:
“In 1902, Mirza Ghulam Ahmad declared, “whoever is a servant of God will not be afflicted with the plague” (Malfuzat V4, 16 Nov. 1902, p. 211) but then he later stated in 1907: “When God’s wrath descends, the righteous are wrapped up with the wicked.” (Malfuzat V9, 01 April 1907, p. 252).
Critique #5
In 1902, Mirza Ghulam Ahmad claimed that, “the righteous person will surely be saved” (Malfuzat V4, 25 Nov. 1902, p. 232) but then later narrated in 1904: “Sometimes death is good for a person, because this way God Almighty saves him from future mistakes, so that his death does not end in disbelief.” (Malfuzat V7, 21 June 1904, p. 81)
Critique #6
In 1902, Mirza Ghulam Ahmad declared that “Those who say that dying by plague is martyrdom do not know that the death by the plague is a divine punishment, however, the expression in a Hadith that it is martyrdom if a believer dies from plague is just Allah Almighty camouflaging (true nature of) the believer.” (Malfuzat V4, 28 Oct. 1902, p. 129) but then later stated in 1904 that: “companions like Abu Ubaidah ibn al-Jarrah, who were dear to Hazrat Umar (may Allah be pleased with him) were martyred by the plague, there is no harm for ordinary believers to die from the plague.” (Malfuzat V6, 28 Feb. 1904, p. 373)
Critique #7
The atmosphere of misery in the Ahmadiyya Community more broadly, and within Qadian more specifically, is reflected with utmost clarity by the following statement where Mirza Ghulam Ahmad Sahib admonishes his followers: “I think it is necessary to state this much, that our Jama’at is mistaken in some way. Probably they did not understand well what I said. And that mistake and deception is that if a person from our Community dies from the plague, they are treated with such cruelty and coldness that no one is found even to pick their coffin…It is a big mistake to leave a person like a dog, who is a Muslim and then is also a member of Ahmadiyya Jama’at.” Malfuzat Vol. 7, Entry for 28 April 1905, pp. 349, 352
Critique #8
The simple answer to these, and which applies to all the quoted objections in this section, is that the critic is citing the claims of the prophecy incompletely. Instead of referring to the original text of the prophecy, wherein the full conditions of being saved from the plague are mentioned, the critical quotes individual, small statements, out of context.
The full condition for being protected from the plague, by virtue of being a follower of Ahmad (pbuh) is that they be within the “four walls” of his teaching. This phrase, in itself, conveys the full sense of the meaning of being a follower who is not simply listed as a believer in a register, but one who is encompassed by all aspects of the teachings of Islam as presented by Ahmad (pbuh), and is fully immersed in obedience to him. This is the wisdom in the reference to “four walls”: a person can be surrounded by three walls in a room, and have one side open, providing the opportunity for a person to leave the room. Describing God’s protection as being only for those in the “four walls” of his home, is a metaphor for those who are fully obedieny to their covenant with Ahmad (pbuh). Thus, in recognition of this condition, the original revelations relating to the plague were:
“In recent days God has revealed to me – ‘I will save all those who dwell in the four walls of your home, except for them who behave with arrogance and presume for themselves a high station. And I will save you with distinction. Peace be on you from God, the Merciful.’
Nuzul-ul-Masih, Ruhani Khaza’in, Vol. 18, pp. 401-402
As regards the condition to be included within the “four walls” of his home, Ahmad (pbuh) elaborated as follows:
…God in this age desires to show a heavenly sign of His mercy to mankind. Addressing me, He said: ‘You and those who dwell within the four walls of your house; those who unconditionally follow you and are obedient to you, and who on account of true righteousness have become devoted to you, shall all be safeguarded against the plague. This will be a sign of God in the Latter Days so that He might demonstrate a distinction between people. But those who do not follow you completely are not of you. Be not anxious on their account.’
This is a divine directive, on account of which I, myself and all those who dwell within the four walls of my house have no need to be inoculated. For as I have mentioned, God—who is the Lord of heaven and earth, and beyond whose knowledge and power there is nothing—revealed to me long ago that He would save everyone who lives inside the four walls of this house from death by the plague, provided he gives up all antagonism and enters into the allegiance of Bai’at in all sincerity, submission and humility. He must not be arrogant, wilful, proud, heedless or vain towards God’s commands and His Appointed One, and his conduct ought to be in conformity with my teachings. He has also told me that Qadian will be saved from such ravages of the plague that cause people to die like dogs and become mad with grief and confusion, and that generally the members of this community, however large in number, will be safe against the plague as compared to my opponents. However, such of my followers may fall prey to the plague who do not fully abide by their pledge, or concerning whom there is some hidden reason in the knowledge of God.”
Noah’s Ark, 5 Oct 1902, p. 2 – 3
It should be noted, that the revelation of God itself answers this allegation: God explicitly states that those in your community who do not follow you “are not of you” and that Ahmad (pbuh) should therefore, “be not anxious on their account”. The obvious inference from this is that such individuals may prove a source of anxiety, for despite being registered as part of the community, they were not fully obedient to the covenant made with Ahmad (pbuh). Thus, the original revelation of the prophecy itself answers all of these objections.
Thus, the dying of some Ahmadis during the plague is not unexpected. Indeed, it cannot be expected that any religious leader should possess only followers of the highest calibre. Could it be presumed that every individual who follows him must have been entirely obedient to him? Of course not. Some among the Prophet Muhammad’s (pbuh) own followers were of a lower level than others. Among those who called themselves Muslims, there were those whom Allah states in the Quran that true belief had not entered into their hearts:
The Arabs of the desert say, ‘We believe.’ Say, “You have not believed yet; but rather say, ‘We have accepted Islam,’ for the true belief has not yet entered into your hearts.” But if you obey Allah and His Messenger, He will not detract anything from your deeds Surely, Allah is Most Forgiving, Merciful.
Quran 49:15
This is the answer particularly to the presentation of the quote of Ahmad (pbuh) that some Ahmadis who died of the plague were not even buried. Where did Ahmad (pbuh) ever say that Ahmadis who died of the plague would be considered disbelievers? The point to be made is that protection from the plague required the fullness of belief and obedience to Ahmad (pbuh). Those who fell short of this were still to be counted amongst the members of his Jama’at. Allah may still forgive them the deficiencies in their faith and admit them to His pleasure and paradise, inshAllah.
In other words, divine protection was never assured to all members of the Ahmadiyya Muslim Community. Those who say so or misrepresent the prophecy as such, are either ignorant of the prophecy or are making deliberate misrepresentations. It was only assured to those who possessed the highest quality of faith and who had abandoned their vices. As this is something only in the knowledge of Allah, pointing out individuals who died of the plague is a meaningless objection.
Finally, in the above quotes provided, there are certain points of profound wisdom that have been represented as being excuses for the death of Ahmadi Muslims from the plague. They are not excuses. Rather, they are explanations from a Prophet of Allah, as to the wisdom behind Allah’s actions. In fact, when analysed carefully, they give elaboration to the above explanation.
Martyrdom, Punishment and Hazrat Abu Ubaidah
For ease of reference for the reader, we present the relevant three criticisms again:
“In 1902, Mirza Ghulam Ahmad declared, “whoever is a servant of God will not be afflicted with the plague” (Malfuzat V4, 16 Nov. 1902, p. 211) but then he later stated in 1907: “When God’s wrath descends, the righteous are wrapped up with the wicked.” (Malfuzat V9, 01 April 1907, p. 252).
In 1902, Mirza Ghulam Ahmad claimed that, “the righteous person will surely be saved” (Malfuzat V4, 25 Nov. 1902, p. 232) but then later narrated in 1904: “Sometimes death is good for a person, because this way God Almighty saves him from future mistakes, so that his death does not end in disbelief.” (Malfuzat V7, 21 June 1904, p. 81)
In 1902, Mirza Ghulam Ahmad declared that “Those who say that dying by plague is martyrdom do not know that the death by the plague is a divine punishment, however, the expression in a Hadith that it is martyrdom if a believer dies from plague is just Allah Almighty camouflaging (true nature of) the believer.” (Malfuzat V4, 28 Oct. 1902, p. 129) but then later stated in 1904 that: “companions like Abu Ubaidah ibn al-Jarrah, who were dear to Hazrat Umar (may Allah be pleased with him) were martyred by the plague, there is no harm for ordinary believers to die from the plague.” (Malfuzat V6, 28 Feb. 1904, p. 373)
Critiques #5, #6 and #7
It would appear that the critic has not realised, but these quotes constitute wonderful proofs of Ahmad’s (pbuh) truth. They proceed, one by one, to explain the wisdom behind God’s actions, like a fortified structure of mutually supporting parts.
In the first quote, from Malfuzat, Volume 9, 1907, we have the statement that when the punishment of God comes, the righteous can be wrapped up by the wicked. Yet in the earlier statement of November 1902, it would appear that those who are “servants of God” would not be afflicted by the plague.
As we have pointed out in our previous section, the November 1902 quote is de-contextualised from the claims of the prophecy. It was not enough, according to the explicit written statements of the Promised Messiah (pbuh) made in April 1902 – months earlier than this quote – to simply be a member of his community or a servant of God in a general sense. The necessity was for excellence and purity of faith to the highest standard.
As such, the statement that the righteous can be wrapped up with the wicked in the punishment of God, is true, unless the righteous attain the highest standards of faith and purity. The term “righteous” can be used as a general term for those who are on the straight path. Those who were followers of Ahmad (pbuh) in name, and in belief, but did not exercise perfect obedience, opened themselves up to the punishment of the plague.
The natural question that then arises is: why would God subject to the plague one who is on the right path, even if they haven’t fully cleansed themselves of their spiritual and moral impurities? Why not let such individuals progress in faith? Why cause them to die before the fullness of their lifespan?
The answer is then provided in the second set of quotes. Herein, Ahmad (pbuh) explains that the wisdom behind this is that the individual whom Allah causes to die may, in Allah’s knowledge, have reached the pinnacle of their faith already, despite their imperfect condition. As such, out of mercy, Allah chooses that they should be presented before Him. Death, in such a circumstance, is sent as a mercy, not as a punishment, and should be understood as such. The foundation of this understanding lies in the Quran, in a vision seen by the Prophet Moses (pbuh) in which he saw Hazrat Khidr (pbuh) kill a youth. When the Prophet Moses (pbuh) accusatorily asked why he had killed him, Hazrat Khidr (pbuh) replied:
‘And as for the youth, his parents were believers, and we feared lest he should cause them trouble through rebellion and disbelief. ‘So we desired that their Lord should give them in exchange a child better than him in purity and closer in filial affection
Quran 18: 81–82
This is not therefore an “excuse” for why some Ahmadi Muslims died from the plague. Rather, it is an understanding that is rooted in the Holy Quran.
The question that naturally arises in the mind after understanding these points, is how we should therefore comprehend death by the plague of such eminent individuals in Islamic history, such as Hazrat Ubaidah ibn al-Jarrah (ra), who was described by the Holy Prophet (pbuh) as the “Amin” or “Trustee” of the Ummah. If the explanation for the death of people by the plague in the time of Ahmad (pbuh) was that Allah wished to cause them to die in the best state they would be, then what of one who had already attained the status of “Al-‘Asharah Al-Mubashsharah” – those who had been given the glad tiding of paradise, in this very life?
The answer here is beautifully given, but only for the individual who reads the entire passage. Ahmad (pbuh) in this passage, if read in context, explains that the plague constitutes a manifestation of God’s wrath, in whichever age and whichever people it falls upon, whether as a prophesied punishment or whether simply as a natural epidemic. He goes on to explain that in this regard, those who attain the rank of Siddiq (Truthful) and Nabi (Prophet) are never killed by the plague, under any circumstance, since they are integral to the fulfilment of God’s plans vis-a-vis the victory of His Message. As for others, they can die from the plague, in general, since “there is no harm” to the mission of God from their death. Ahmad (pbuh) was therefore explaining that even in the case of plague as a natural epidemic, not as a prophesied punishment, the absolute elect of God – the Siddiq and Nabi – are even then protected from the plague.
Now let us analyse the cause of Hazrat Abu Ubaidah ibn al-Jarrah (ra). The plague that killed him falls into the category of such a plague that comes as a normal, natural event, not sent as a prophesied punishment from God. No-one claimed at the time that a plague is coming, and that the cause of its coming is the rejection of any Messenger of God. On the contrary, the plague came at a time when the Muslims were making extraordinary and enormous sacrifices of their lives in battles. As such, the survival of Hazrat Abu Ubaidah ibn al-Jarrah (ra) was not a matter of the fulfilment of any prophecy. Neither was he a Siddiq nor was he a Nabi, such that the mission of Allah would come to harm from his premature or untimely death. Thus, in such a condition, Hazrat Abu Ubaidah ibn al-Jarrah (ra) was granted martyrdom through death by the plague.
A simple analogy to understand the matter is as follows: death by drowning at the time of the flood of the Prophet Noah (pbuh) carried the stigma of God’s punishment, yet death by drowning otherwise was declared by the Holy Prophet of Islam (pbuh) as a means of attaining martyrdom for the true believer:
Jabir ibn ‘Atik reported: The Messenger of Allah, peace and blessings be upon him, said, “There are seven martyrs besides one who is killed in the way of Allah: the victim of plague is a martyr, the one who drowns is a martyr, the one who dies of chest pain is a martyr, the one who dies of stomach infection is a martyr, the one who burns to death is a martyr, the one who is crushed under something is a martyr, and the pregnant woman who dies giving labor is a martyr.”
Sunan Abī Dāwūd 3111
Interestingly, death by plague and death by drowning are placed next to one another in this hadith. Though the method of death is the same, the intentionality of Allah and the circumstances of the plague — i.e. whether it had been prophesied or not and, if so, the conditions attached to such a prophecy — are all essential facets that must be borne in mind. Thus, it is not valid to use the death of Hazrat Abu Ubaidah ibn al-Jarrah (ra) from the plague as an apparent contradiction to statements made by Ahmad (pbuh) relating to the plague in his time. They are two separate phenomena; the former was a natural epidemic, not a sign of the truth of any Messenger, while the latter constituted a sign of punishment for a people who had rejected and sought to destroy the Messenger of God.
Part 3: Increase in Numbers of Ahmadi Muslims 1901 – 1911
The third and final logical fallacy employed, relates to claims that the numbers of the Ahmadiyya Muslim Community did not increase significantly enough during the years of plague epidemic in India. The fallacy employed here is the Anecdotal fallacy.
Anecdotal fallacy – Using personal experience or an isolated example instead of a valid argument, especially to dismiss statistics.
Fallacy #3
On the basis of anecdotes that some Ahmadis died, as evidenced by questions asked of Ahmad (pbuh) as recorded in the compilation Malfuzat, it is presumed that the prophecy was entirely false and that Ahmadis were not protected in general, more than others. It is presumed therefore that since the Sign failed, the numbers of Ahmadis did not increase in any significant number above those of other faiths.
In this final section therefore, we will analyse the claims of the critic that as the years progressed, the question as to why some Ahmadi Muslims were dying of the plague continued to be raised over and over again, and that this constitutes proof of the repeated failure of the prophecy. As we shall see, the opposite, is in fact, the case.
The question as to why some Ahmadi Muslims were dying is not a matter of shame. It is a natural, important, and indeed, inevitable question. One could even say that these questions were bound to increase over time, if the prophecy was proven true. Why? Because the extraordinary protection offered by the plague to the Ahmadi Muslims in Qadian and in the surrounding areas of the Punjab led to a large influx into the community of individuals. Indeed, in the Census of India 1911 in relation to the Punjab alone (Volume 24, Part 1, published in 1912 by the Superintendent government printing in Calcutta, India) the authorities state that the numbers of Ahmadis increased between 1901 and 1911, five-fold. It is true that they position the numbers in the Punjab at a low level, however, this is not surprising for two reasons. Firstly, the immense stigma and vitriol directed against Ahmadi Muslims in that region, at that time, would have served as a potential deterrent to many openly listing themselves as Ahmadis on the 1911 census. The numbers reported therefore, should be considered to be the tip of a significantly large iceberg. Secondly, the maxim of Jesus (pbuh) in this regard provides a second explanation:
But Jesus said unto them, A prophet is not without honour, except in his own country, and among his own kin, and in his own house.
Mark 6:4, KJV
Opposition is always worst and rejection always at its peak, in the place of the Messenger’s birth and origin. Those who have seen him rise from a child, to a man and then a Messenger, feel that had anyone been chosen, it should have been them. Their opposition is borne of jealousy and arrogance.
Nevertheless, despite the worst opposition in the Punjab, the numbers of Ahmadi Muslims swelled five fold over ten years, those individuals having witnessed the large-scale protection of Ahmadis against the plague. As they did so, there would be a number among them who would not have reached a condition of total obedience and excellence in faith. Attaining such a high level of faith and belief is, for the most part, something that occurs over a period of time, and with effort and striving. Among those who entered into the community, swelling its ranks at least five fold in the Punjab, we would expect to see those still clinging to former sinful ways, and those whose faith was not yet firm. Such would not have been protected from the plague as per the conditions given by God. It is not surprising at all, therefore, that as many entered into the community, the absolute numbers of plague deaths among Ahmadis should similarly have risen. This is to be expected, and does not contravene the prophecy in the least. Rather, it demonstrates the natural consequence of its fulfilment!
As such, Ahmad (pbuh) himself explains:
“Several members of our Jamaat mistakenly declare that not a single member of our Jamaat will pass away [from the plague], but this is a huge misunderstanding and an improbability. Although Allah the Almighty has promised to a certain degree [that our Jamaat will be safeguarded], it does not mean that nobody at all from our Jamaat will be affected by the plague. Our Jamaat must bear this fact in mind that Allah the Almighty has certainly not promised that none among us would pass away [from the plague]. Surely, Allah the Almighty states:
“‘As to that which benefits men, it stays on the earth’ (Surah al-Ra‘d, Ch.13: V.18), hence those persons who make themselves beneficial to mankind, Allah the Almighty will prolong their lives. Act mercifully towards the creation of Allah the Almighty; the rights of mankind must be fulfilled in their entirety.”
Malfuzat, Vol. 5, pp. 123-124 [2016]
Conclusion: Where was God?
There is much that could be said about the prophecy of the plague. However, it is important to revise the fundamental facts about this prophecy made by Ahmad (pbuh), for they are stunning enough.
In 1898, Ahmad (pbuh) prophesied that the plague, which at that point had not reached the Punjab to any significant degree, and which was until then, confined to the Western shores of India, would spread to the Punjab, specifically. This tragedy subsequently unfolded with extraordinary accuracy.
The critics of this prophecy are entirely silent about this aspect of the prophecy and the reason is simple: there is no answer to it. The prophecy was fulfilled to the letter. They deliberately omit even mentioning it as part of the prophecy, though it constituted its major aspect, because they are too embarrassed to present the facts as they are, such is the weakness of their position.
Let their resounding failure ring in your ears.
In the second part of the prophecy, Ahmad (pbuh) prophesied that though the region in which he lived would be severely hit, he and his household of seventy five individuals, sitting in the very centre of this pathogenic explosion, would remain entirely untouched. To this day, critics cannot give the name of a single individual who died in his house in the years between the outbreak of plague in the Punjab (1901) and his death (1908).
Let their resounding failure, again, ring in your ears.
And let your mind wander a moment, and ask yourself: which liar would be mad enough to make such a prophecy, knowing themselves to be false? Who would be sufficiently insane to prophesy in one breath, the explosion of a deadly disease in one’s own region, and then in the second breath, pronounce the assured safety of oneself and approximately seventy five members of one’s household?
Such fools do not exist. Only a truthful claimant, truly sent by God, could ever have such bravery.
Finally, we must ask: where was God in all this? Is God so impotent that despite taking the lives of literally tens of thousands of individuals per week in the very region of such a – God forbid – brazen liar, He lets him live, year after year, while such an individual continues to publish and pronounce his survival as evidence of divine support? The prophecy of the plague, most of all therefore, is a stunning rebuke to all those who believe in God, Muslims or not, and who yet consider Ahmad (pbuh) a liar. God provided such an extraordinary situation that – if one is intellectually honest – one is forced to either accept the religious claims of Ahmad (pbuh), or to believe that God is entirely impotent and ineffectual, unable to take the life of the one man who was – God forbid – falsely claiming divine protection from this deadly disease, even as He took the lives of tens of thousands of that man’s countrymen. In opposing Ahmad (pbuh), they make a liar and a fool, even of God Himself.
They seek to extinguish the light of Allah with their mouths; but Allah refuses but to perfect His light, though the disbelievers may resent it. He it is Who sent His Messenger with guidance and the Religion of Truth, that He may make it prevail over every other religion, even though the idolaters may resent it
Holy Quran 9:32 – 33
Written with thanks to Maulana Jahangeer Khan sahib, missionary in-charge French desk, for his proof-reading and suggestions.